REALTOR.COM® DATA PREVIEW: Longest Housing Inventory Decline in Two Decades

After 24 Consecutive Months of Falling Year-Over-Year Inventory Levels, No End in Sight to Supreme Seller’s Market

According to new data from realtor.com®, there were 11 percent fewer homes on the market in June 2017 than during the same time last year, marking 24 consecutive months of year-over-year inventory declines – the longest such streak in two decades. Residential real estate prices also remained at historic highs, with homes selling for 9 percent more in June than a year previously even as the pace of sales picked up. Taken together, the data indicate that the lack of available inventory and ultra-competitive environment are continuing to pose serious challenges for would-be home buyers.

The median age of property listings on realtor.com in June is 60 days, which indicates that properties are selling five days faster than this time last year and at roughly the same pace as last month.

Earlier in the spring, the nationwide median home list price pushed above $250,000 for the first time. Now $275,000, the median list price is 9 percent higher than one year ago.

The total number of homes for sale has gone up during the beginning of the summer home-buying season, as is typical, but it remains substantially lower than one year ago. Approximately 536,000 new listings hit the market in June, a slight jump over last year. However, those homes are concentrated on the higher end of the market, failing to offer relief to the mid- and lower-price ranges where demand is greatest.

Javier Vivas, manager of economic research at realtor.com, said:

“We have now gone 24 months in a row seeing the number of homes drop on a year-over-year basis, the longest streak in more than two decades. And more markets than ever are struggling with inventory problems; in 80 percent of markets there are fewer homes for sale currently than this time last year.

“It’s good to see that more homes are coming onto the market, but the bulk of those homes are too pricey for the largest, most desperate group of buyers. With no clear indication that newly built homes will be able to provide short-term relief soon, there appears to be no end in sight for the inventory shortage. The market will likely remain very challenging for would-be buyers throughout the summer.”

Key Statistics:

  • Median age of inventory is estimated to end at 60 days, down 8 percent from last year and unchanged from last month.
  • Median listing price for June should reach $275,000, unchanged from the previous month and a 9 percent increase year-over-year.
  • Listing inventory in June should show a decrease of 11 percent year-over-year. Additionally, June inventory should show a 3 percent increase over May.
  • Realtor.com’s Hottest Markets receive 1.5 to 4.6 times the number of views per listing compared to the national average. In terms of supply, these markets are seeing inventory move 18-33 days more quickly than the rest of the U.S. However, only two of the hottest markets are seeing inventory move faster than last month. The median age is 1.3 days slower for the hottest markets on average from May.
                                                REALTOR.COM® HOTNESS INDEX
20 Hottest Markets
June Rank
June Median Age of Inventory
May Rank
May Median Age of Inventory
Vallejo-Fairfield, Calif.
1
31 days
1
28 days
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif.
2
29 days
2
24 days
Kennewick-Richland, Wash.
3
34 days
5
34 days
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif.
4
34 days
4
33 days
Columbus, Ohio
5
37 days
7
36 days
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich.
6
37 days
18
40 days
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.
7
37 days
3
33 days
Colorado Springs, Colo.
8
33 days
6
32 days
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.
9
27 days
9
24 days
San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.
10
37 days
16
36 days
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas
11
38 days
12
38 days
Waco, Texas
12
40 days
30
46 days
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich.
13
32 days
13
31 days
Stockton-Lodi, Calif.
14
38 days
10
36 days
Midland, Texas.
15
38 days
8
34 days
Fort Wayne, Ind.
16
42 days
11
39 days
Santa Rosa, Calif.
17
38 days
19
37 days
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.
18
30 days
17
27 days
Yuba City, Calif.
19
42 days
21
41 days
Modesto, Calif.
20
39 days
23
39 days
 

**Realtor.com reviewed listing views by market as an indicator of demand and median days on market as an indicator of supply. This analysis led to the identification of the 20 hottest medium-sized to large markets in the country.

Key Takeaways from realtor.com’s® June Hotness Index:

  • California dominated the list with nine markets, but seven other states were represented (Washington, Ohio, Michigan, Massachusetts, Colorado, Texas, and Indiana).
  • Vallejo-Fairfield retained its spot as the nation’s hottest market.
  • Columbus, Ohio moved up two spots, entering the top 5 for the first time since realtor.comstarted tracking the hotness index. One top mover to watch is Detroit, Michigan, which moved up 12 spots from last month and fell just shy of the top 5 list this month.
    · The new entrants to the top 20 in June were Waco, Texas; Yuba City, California; and Modesto, California up 18, 2 and 3 spots, respectively, since May.
West Coast Commercial Real Estate News